Volkov a Slight Favorite Over Kuniev, Picked to Win on Points

Alexander Volkov is a slight betting favorite over Rizvan Kuniev for their heavyweight fight at UFC 333 on Saturday, Oct. 24, at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Volkov at -122 and Kuniev at -104.

Among the method-of-victory props, decisions carry the shortest prices. A Volkov decision is +175 and a Kuniev decision +200. A knockout, TKO or DQ pays +400 for Volkov and +600 for Kuniev, while a submission is a long shot either way: +2000 for Volkov, +1700 for Kuniev.

Andrew Richardson, a pro fighter from Team Alpha Male in Sacramento who writes technical previews, picks Volkov by decision.

Range against the clinch

Richardson frames the matchup around distance. He describes Volkov as a tall fighter who actually puts his reach to use, mostly through stabbing front kicks that keep opponents stuck on the outside, and notes that "Drago" has improved his boxing and takedown defense and has 28 finishes on his record. In his view, the toe kick, the jab and an intercepting knee are the tools that can keep Kuniev away, and a Volkov uppercut against Kuniev's high guard could open a path to a stoppage if Volkov presses with combinations.

Kuniev, by Richardson's account, has been very hard to take down across three UFC appearances and is mainly a boxer with fast hands and sharp counters. In his last outing he beat up Tyrell Fortune in the clinch with knees to the body that led to a knockout. Richardson believes the Russian cannot win a long-range fight with Volkov and should use takedown attempts to force his way into the clinch, then mix knees with breaks and combinations rather than simply pinning the taller man to the fence.

He still sees that as difficult. Getting to the clinch does not guarantee winning there, he argues, because Volkov's height and length matter in a knee exchange too. Fortune, he adds, walked into the pocket and the clinch willingly, and Volkov will not be such an easy target; Richardson expects him to pile up points while Kuniev looks for a way inside.

The analyst also writes that Volkov, who he says was robbed against Ciryl Gane, is facing a third straight top-10 opponent without getting closer to a title shot, while Kuniev can push into the title picture with a win.

Source: MMA Mania