Allen vs. Duncan: Odds and Keys for the UFC Vegas 122 Headliner

The middleweight main event of UFC Vegas 122 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, October 10, 2026, pits Brendan Allen against Christian Leroy Duncan. According to the preview, Allen's upset win over Reinier de Ridder last year should have lifted him back into the title conversation, yet he is fighting a lower-ranked opponent for the third straight time. Duncan, meanwhile, is on a five-fight winning streak, has won seven of his last eight, and is headlining a UFC card for the first time.

What the betting market says

Sportsbook lines listed Allen as a -138 favorite and Duncan at +108. In the method-of-victory markets, Allen was +300 to win by submission, +250 by decision and +850 by knockout, while Duncan was +240 to win by knockout, +500 by decision and +2500 to submit the American.

The preview described Allen as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with strong back attacks, capable wrestling and combinations of punches, kicks and knees, and noted that he has historically been too easy to hit. It argued that his best path is to mix his attacks so Duncan has to respect both strikes and takedowns, since the Englishman's output has dipped in the past when he faced that double threat. According to the analyst, Duncan's habit of crashing into the clinch and his love of spinning techniques could also play into Allen's hands, because Allen is the better clinch fighter and a skilled back taker.

The analyst described Duncan as a tall fighter with a side-on, karate-influenced style, a 79-inch reach, long straight punches, explosive kicks and spinning attacks. The breakdown suggested he should feint more and pick his moments for spinning strikes, and that a steady jab could be his best weapon. The preview also noted that Allen is chronically aggressive and has walked onto heavy counters before against fighters such as Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis.

The prediction

The analyst admitted to mixed feelings, noting that Allen can unravel when he loses the stand-up battle and that Duncan still makes distance-management mistakes. In the end he sided with momentum: in his view Duncan, in only his sixth year as a pro, started to click in early 2024 and should still be improving, while Allen's best may already have been seen. The analyst said a close decision either way or an early Allen choke would not surprise him, but his official call was Duncan by decision.